One of today's greatest NBA minds will clash with the game's best overall player, as the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers are set to battle for the third time in the past four postseasons.
While others will make their mark, this series will come down to Celtics head coach Brad Stevens against four-time MVP LeBron James.
Cleveland defeated the Celtics in five games in this same Eastern Conference Finals round a year ago, even though James had his least effective overall series.
Stevens and the Celtics held James to just 11 points on 4-of-13 shooting in a Game 3 win, the fourth-lowest postseason total of James' 15-year career. Although there were rumors he was battling an illness, James made no mention of it, and it was clear Boston's defense had much to do with his poor performance.
"He's the best player in the world," Stevens told Bleacher Report after the game.
Although Stevens' roster is much different than it was a year ago, the blueprint to stopping James, and the rest of the Cavaliers, has already been written.
Who Guards LeBron?
If Cleveland opens with its traditional postseason lineup of James, Kevin Love, JR Smith, Kyle Korver and George Hill, it would appear likely that forward Marcus Morris will draw the first assignment.
He's faced James before in the postseason as a member of the Detroit Pistons in 2016, and he has the size (6'9", 235 lbs) to counter him in the post.
There doesn't appear to be a lack of confidence from the 28-year-old, either, per Jay King of The Athletic:
If Morris gets in early foul trouble or can't handle the job, Boston has a variety of options. Stevens can use rookie 6'8" forward Jayson Tatum or even 6'10" center Al Horford at times.
"Morris is the most physical of the three, and I think that's who they'll match up with LeBron," one Eastern Conference scout told Bleacher Report. "You need size to guard LeBron. You can't have someone who's not physical. If you do, he'll manhandle them. They have some long, athletic wings, and you have to have that to match up with him."
If Cleveland tries to go big in its starting lineup with Tristan Thompson or Larry Nance Jr., this would likely force Morris onto Kevin Love, a strategy the Cavs may be wise to use. Regardless of who Stevens initially gives the job to, Boston has far more options than either the Indiana Pacers or Toronto Raptors had on their rosters in the first two rounds.
"I could see Cleveland start Tristan Thompson in this series, which could change who guards LeBron to start. They'll have to rotate guys on him and give him different looks. He'll get guys in foul trouble. They could try Horford on him, but I don't think that would work very well because you can't afford to get him in foul trouble. He's too important to Boston," the scout said.
"You can rotate Tatum and [Jaylen] Brown on him. Marcus Smart will draw him at times, even though LeBron's got four or five inches on him. He's tough, though, and won't back down. Like Lance Stephenson, he can irritate him a little bit. I don't like the idea of just one guy guarding him. They have better and longer defenders than what Indiana and Toronto threw at him, and that will help."
Indiana primarily used Bojan Bogdanovic against James in the opening round (267 total possessions, 49.4 percent of all team possessions, per NBA.com). He tried to overcome his physical limitations with added aggressiveness, doing a good job by limiting James to 49.1 percent shooting overall and 27.3 percent from deep.
Toronto lacked any sort of answer for James and primarily used rookie OG Anunoby (170 total possessions, 55.0 percent overall). Although he did an admirable job forcing James into a healthy number of fadeaway jumpers, the 33-year-old still nailed 53.7 percent of his overall attempts.
For Boston in the regular season, Morris (55 possessions) and Brown (57 possessions) defended James the most, per NBA.com. Each allowed roughly the same shooting success rate (50.0 percent and 53.7 percent, respectively).
Double LeBron or Contain the Role Players?
For a decade-and-a-half now, coaches have struggled with this decision. Play James straight up, and he's big and strong enough to get by his man and into the paint. Send help, and he's zipping a pass from any angle to an open shooter.
A big difference between the Pacers series that went seven games and the Toronto sweep wasn't James, but rather how those around him performed.
James averaged 34.4 points on 55.3 percent shooting against Indiana and nearly mirrored it with 34.0 points on 55.3 percent shooting to take down the Raptors. The key was Kevin Love and Cleveland's role players.
Love averaged just 11.4 points against Thaddeus Young and Indiana's smothering defense before blasting Toronto for 20.5 a night. Kyle Korver jumped from 8.3 points to 14.5 from round to round, and JR Smith improved to 12.5 points from 8.6 as well.
It may be wise to game-plan for Cleveland's role players first, as strange as that may sound.
"Even if LeBron scores 42 points, if you can shut down Korver and Love, you've got a chance," the scout told B/R.
"JR Smith is so damn inconsistent you never know what you're gonna get. He's either going to go 0-of-6 or 6-of-6, there's no in between. Take away Korver's catch-and-shoot, and you can stop him. Boston has the ability to do that. They're so much more athletic and versatile defensively than Toronto and Indiana were. Let LeBron get his and limit the supporting cast. When James wasn't getting help against the Pacers, they weren't winning."
Horford and Morris have a similar defensive ability like Young did for Indiana to make things tough for Love inside. Stopping Korver is something Cleveland used to focus on when he was a member of the Atlanta Hawks, which they were able to do in the 2015 Eastern Conference Finals.
"Korver's not tough to shut down," the scout said. "You can get him. I think Brad Stevens is such a good coach they're going to be very prepared in transition getting to Korver and finding him off of pin downs. If you can do that and stay in front of him in his space and make him go through you to catch the ball, you've got him shut down."
Cleveland has gotten next to nothing out of Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson and Nance, three of the Cavs' prime acquisitions at the trade deadline. Hill is a fine two-way player, but he brings limited scoring and prefers to get others involved.
Boston should be isolating on James as much as possible, choosing instead to take away his shooters and Love's production inside.
The only exception?
"If he gets a one-on-one in the post, you'll have to help," the scout said. "You have to double-team him at the end of a close game and get the ball out of his hands. I mean, look what's happened when teams have played him straight up."
Conclusion
Guarding James will likely be a revolving door of Morris, Tatum, Brown and even Horford or Smart at times. That's by far the best combination of defenders he's seen this postseason and probably the best collection outside of Golden State.
Studying Cleveland's last two rounds should give Stevens plenty of insight on how to cover James and, more importantly, the Cavaliers as a whole. The bad news for the Celtics? They'll have to combat yet another factor, something that neither Indiana nor Toronto had to do.
"What's going to hurt Boston is LeBron comes into this series rested. He's in such phenomenal shape already, getting those four days of rest is going to be huge. If he hadn't got hurt in Game 7, he would have played all 48 minutes. Indiana wore him out," the scout said.
There's also a schedule factor. Cleveland and Toronto played every other day, whereas there are three whole days off between Game 2 on Tuesday and Game 3 on Saturday of this series. Any thought of James breaking down after the first two rounds can probably be put to bed given this much time between series and games.
Still, the Cavaliers offense has appeared mortal at times, especially when James is doing the heavy lifting by himself. If there's any coach left in the postseason who can put together a successful plan for James, it's Stevens.
Greg Swartz covers the Cleveland Cavaliers for Bleacher Report. Stats provided by NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
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