0 of 8
Two weeks, 48 games and a whopping 122 goals have led us here: the World Cup 2018 knockout stages. The round of 16 begins on Saturday with France vs. Argentina and will be followed by seven more cracking games.
Questions abound ahead of the games. How will France deal with Lionel Messi? Can Mexico pick themselves up off the floor and summon the strength to beat Brazil? Is there any hope for Denmark against in-form Croatia? Can Portugal outdo Uruguay on set pieces?
Here, B/R breaks down each tie, looks at the key factors that could decide it, point out where it will be won and lost...and predicts a scoreline too!
1 of 8
Despite the 3-0 win over Russia proving Uruguay can grasp the mantle and can wow us with good football, it seems likely they'll retract into their more pragmatic shell for the round of 16.
They'll be all too aware of the damage Cristiano Ronaldo can do—several of their players, including their centre-back pairing, come into regular contact with him in La Liga. Whereas against Russia they pushed on and trusted Diego Godin to deal with the hosts' striker one-on-one, they might be more cautious here.
That might be the right way of going about things, too; excluding games where Portugal have been allowed to solely focus on counter-attacking (Spain), they've struggled immensely to create chances.
Bernardo Silva has been a huge disappointment to this point, while Bruno Fernandes and Joao Mario haven't shown their best. Ricardo Quaresma may have scored an incredible goal but struggled to get the better of Iran defender Ehsan Haji Safi in his sole start to date.
It's a battle that, like many group-stage matches before it, might just be won on set pieces. Uruguay have scored all of their goals so far from these situations; Portugal have scored three out of five.
Prediction: Uruguay 1-0 Portugal
2 of 8
France vs. Argentina is a battle of the underwhelmers. Given the talent present in both squads, everyone knows what they're capable of, but so far they're yet to show it.
France more or less cruised through Group C, finishing top with seven points, but were criticised heavily for their stodgy style. There were periods in games when they looked good, but they failed to maintain said periods for longer than 20 minutes or so, losing their rhythm shortly afterward.
The free-flowing football you'd expect from a side containing Paul Pogba, Antoine Griezmann and Kylian Mbappe hasn't materialised as yet. In fact, it's notable that whenever Nabil Fekir steps off the bench, they improve demonstrably; perhaps he could be in line for a start against Argentina?
That said, there are certain matchups here that look good for Les Bleus. How Argentina's ragged full-backs intend on dealing with Mbappe's speed and trickery is anyone's guess, and whether Javier Mascherano can keep up with the quick-thinking Griezmann is another.
Argentina's tournament has been largely dreadful, but it at least perked up in the third group game following the deployment of Ever Banega in central midfield. His ability to pick passes and dictate the rhythm of the attack freed up Lionel Messi from having to burden himself with that, and the result was a beautiful connection between the two for the opening goal against Nigeria.
If France are smart, they will stick N'Golo Kante on Banega in a man-marking role and watch the Argentina system crumble as a result. That would draw Messi away from Hugo Lloris' goal and place the creative onus on players like Mascherano and Enzo Perez.
Prediction: France 2-0 Argentina
3 of 8
Did Mexico peak too early in this competition? That win over Germany was incredible—no matter how poor Die Mannschaft turned out to be—and at the final whistle of their 3-0 loss to Sweden in Game 3, the highs of that day felt a long time past.
They'll have to piece themselves back together and prepare to face a team who are on a more promising, upward gradient: Brazil. They've steadily grown into this tournament and are starting to look like the team we expected: the midfield purring, the centre-backs dominant, the forwards improving.
Neymar was accelerating through the gears against Serbia, Gabriel Jesus' linkup ability was starting to show, and Paulinho's energy beginning to pay dividends. With Philippe Coutinho knitting it all together, they're a fearsome prospect.
Perhaps the fact that El Tri will likely be able to focus on counter-attacking will work in their favour. Their speed and directness, harnessed primarily through Hirving Lozano, Carlos Vela and Hector Herrera, can rip teams apart on the break. Brazil should deploy Casemiro in the space Germany ignored, which could make a big difference.
If that doesn't work, it's tough to see where the breakthrough comes from. Brazil's only noted defensive weakness in this tournament so far is combatting crosses into the box—Miranda often working overtime to clear those—and Mexico are a small side that likely won't capitalise on that.
Prediction: Brazil 2-1 Mexico
4 of 8
It is quite remarkable that Japan have got to this stage. Not only were they the de facto weakest side in Group H on paper, but they changed manager as late as March, throwing their preparations for the World Cup into chaos.
Luck has played a part in getting them to where they are. They're not a poor side, but a third-minute red card to Carlos Sanchez played a big part in their win over Colombia, and they ended up scraping through on the fair-play rule—becoming the first side ever to do so.
They'll now face a Belgium side who won all three of their group games and look much stronger on paper. With stars such as Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku to come back into the side fresh and rested, this tie looks quite one-sided.
The Samurai Blue must, therefore, do whatever they can to stress the clear weak point in Roberto Martinez's formation: Yannick Carrasco. He's playing left wing-back out of necessity, and both Panama and Tunisia targeted him with success. Japan have better players than both of those teams and can achieve something similar.
In central midfield, watch out for Japan's Gaku Shibasaki, who has had a fantastic under-the-radar tournament. His ability to produce long, accurate switch passes might be the key to Japan getting in behind Belgium on the counter.
Prediction: Belgium 3-1 Japan
5 of 8
Russia's punishment for losing the final group game, and therefore surrendering top spot, is a match with Spain. It's not an impossible task—La Furia Roja have been far from perfect so far—but it's a daunting one.
The moment Spain stop shooting themselves in the foot defensively is the moment every other team's chances of winning the World Cup decreases dramatically. Penalty concessions, David de Gea blunders, miscommunications, poor marking at corners...you name the act of transgression, Gerard Pique and Co. have probably committed it.
Offensively they've looked pretty good, though, and have impressed with their intricate ball work and overloading of the flanks with technical players. They're using byline cutbacks a lot, with Isco and Andres Iniesta in particular working great positions. There have been suggestions there's no Plan B, but Plan A's been fine so far.
Expect them to head straight for the space between Yury Zhirkov at left-back and Sergei Ignashevich at left centre-back to test it. Then expect Isco to grow into the game more and more, with his battle against the excellent Mario Fernandes at right-back one to keep an eye on.
Going the other way, Aleksandr Golovin will have to be on top form to weave through the lines on the counter-attack and evade Sergio Busquets, while Artem Dzyuba's hold-up role to relieve pressure is crucial.
Finally, Denis Cheryshev—a man every Spaniard should be familiar with given he's a Villarreal player and formerly of Real Madrid—has shown himself to be quite the predator dipping in off the left flank and must be tracked thoroughly.
Prediction: Spain 2-1 Russia
6 of 8
Croatia have risen to the height of public estimation over the last two weeks, converting their star power into excellent performances in a way most of the traditional big guns haven't.
With Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic playing imperious football in the centre, they'll likely control proceedings against Denmark, who have a star of their own in the form of Christian Eriksen but little enterprise otherwise.
It's crucial Modric and Rakitic bring their wingers—Ivan Perisic and Ante Rebic—into play early and often. Denmark right-back Henrik Dalsgaard has had an excellent tournament but won't be able to use his physicality to bully Perisic, while Jens Stryger Larsen hasn't fared so well and might have trouble with Rebic.
That wide play is important because Mario Mandzukic cannot be counted on to win his battle against the centre-backs. The striker hasn't played particularly well in Russia and will come up against the imperious figure of Simon Kjaer, who does his best work battling target men in the air.
For Denmark to breach the Vatreni's defence, they'll need a lot more from Pione Sisto on the left flank—presuming he features, that is. He's done so little of note with his 217 minutes so far, and with Yussuf Poulsen back from suspension and Martin Braithwaite impressing to a degree against France, he might be left out.
Whichever the attacking alignment, Denmark need more from the players surrounding Eriksen. That might help him find his top level, too, as that's been sorely lacking in Russia so far.
Prediction: Croatia 2-0 Denmark
7 of 8
Sweden vs. Switzerland is by far the least enticing round-of-16 tie on offer, pitting two defensive, workhorse sides who lack star quality in attack against one another. It shapes up as a tight, gritty match on paper where centre-backs and defensive midfielders reign supreme.
Both sides have plenty of quality in those areas, with Switzerland's Valon Behrami (central midfielder) and Manuel Akanji (centre-back) their top two performers in Russia so far and Sweden's Andreas Granqvist (centre-back) arguably the most impactful defender in the entire tournament through three games.
In the search for potential deadlock-breakers, you naturally land on Xherdan Shaqiri. His run-and-finish against Serbia all but propelled Switzerland into the knockouts, and it was his whipped corner that Steven Zuber converted to nick a point against Brazil.
Failing any of that, his capacity to find the top corner from range is well documented and something Sweden will need to work hard to prevent.
Sweden's equivalent of Shaqiri is Emil Forsberg, but he hasn't sparked into life this tournament. It's been all about the Marcus Berg/Ola Toivonen connection—they haven't scored many between them, but their telepathic linkup has pulled defences around nicely, creating gaps.
If you count Sweden's three-goal haul against Mexico as the outlier it probably is—it's the first time they've scored more than one in a game this year in nine attempts—then you get the distinct impression this one's going to be settled by the odd strike.
Prediction: Sweden 0-1 Switzerland
8 of 8
Colombia have hauled themselves into the round of 16 after a dramatic group stage and can now pause, wipe their brows and reset their focus. It's still "win or go home," but it's in a more controlled scenario for manager Jose Pekerman to deal with.
The fitness of one important player will determine how this contest shapes up—both camps will be sweating on the wellbeing of James Rodriguez—for polarising reasons, obviously. Pekerman has described the situation as "extremely concerning," per BBC Sport.
If he's fit, Los Cafeteros can load up on playmakers, pairing James with Juan Quintero, and try to stress England's back three with creativity spread across the pitch. Poland felt the full wrath of that—plus a confident Juan Cuadrado—and lost 3-0.
But defensively, Pekerman should be concerned. England's well-coached attacking philosophy fills the gaps between markers and forces drastic action. Yerry Mina will likely struggle with the relentless movement he's presented with, as will Carlos Sanchez. Davinson Sanchez might well be on "spectacular last-ditch-tackle" duty again.
Then there's The Three Lions' set-piece prowess. Outside of Mina, Colombia aren't the biggest of sides, whereas England can call upon at least three dangerous aerial resources and benefit from Kieran Trippier's whipped deliveries.
Colombia might level that battle through Mina himself, who already has two headed goals at these finals, but will need to work hard to ensure Radamel Falcao isn't left isolated, as he was in two of the three group-stage games.
Prediction: Colombia 1-2 England
Facebook.com/SamTigheBR
All statistics via WhoScored.com
The author
No comments: