Kawhi Leonard has made it known that he wants out of San Antonio. And it appears the Spurs are done trying to mend the relationship.
According to Marc Stein of the New York Times, "This doesn't guarantee Leonard is going to the [Los Angeles] Lakers this week—since San Antonio could always trade him elsewhere and/or drag things out—but league sources say of the Spurs: 'They're ready' to move on from Kawhi."
As for where Leonard might ultimately end up, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported, "The Spurs are fully engaged in trade talks with several teams on Leonard, including the Lakers and [Boston] Celtics, league sources tell ESPN. Boston has long had the assets that the Spurs most covet in a potential Leonard trade."
Wojnarowski added that the Celtics may not be inclined to offer a full treasure trove of assets given the uncertainties surrounding Leonard, however:
The Celtics are loaded with assets. They have established stars in Kyrie Irving, Al Horford and Gordon Hayward, young stars in the making in Jayson Tatum (who is probably untouchable, even for Leonard) and Jaylen Brown and a horde of future draft picks.
Without assurances that Leonard would sign a long-term extension, however, it's unlikely the Celtics would want to sacrifice the normal asking price for a top-five player and MVP candidate like Leonard. But Bobby Marks of ESPN suggested a potential deal earlier in June that could straddle the line of fair value for both teams:
"The Celtics could use restricted free agent Marcus Smart in a trade if the guard agreed to a three-year contract for around $36 million; the contract would have to be a minimum of three years based on the rules for a sign-and-trade deal. Combined with Smart's salary (which would count just $6 million for trade matching purposes because of the base-year compensation rule), Brown, [Marcus] Morris and [Guerschon] Yabusele, the finances would work for Leonard. In fact, that trade works (by $11,426) even if Leonard does not waive his 15 percent trade kicker that would add $3 million to his $20 million salary for next year."
More than likely, San Antonio would also ask for one of Boston's future first-round picks in that trade, likely either the Sacramento 2019 selection (top-1 protected) or the Memphis 2019 pick (top-8 protected, top-6 protected in 2020, unprotected in 2021).
That deal would of course be contingent upon Smart signing that extension. But getting back Brown, Smart and a potentially valuable first-round pick, along with Morris and Yabusele, would be a pretty solid return if the Spurs are truly hesitant to deal with the Lakers. And the Celtics would still be loaded even if Leonard didn't re-sign an extension, with a core of Irving (if he picks up his player option next summer or re-signs), Tatum, Horford and Hayward and enough draft assets to keep the coffers stocked.
Plus, Leonard might fall in love with playing for the Celtics and decide to stay. And certainly, his addition next season would make Boston the favorites in the East and perhaps the favorites to unseat the Golden State Warriors as well.
But if the Lakers—who would likely be willing to offer more in a trade with the belief that Leonard would sign a long-term extension—offered a deal that included Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart and draft picks (it feels unlikely the Spurs would take on Lonzo Ball and his family circus), would that be enough to outbid the Celtics?
Don't forget about the Sixers, either, who have young players (Markelle Fultz, Dario Saric, Zhaire Smith), a talented wing in Robert Covington and Miami's 2021 unprotected first-rounder they could dangle in a package for Leonard. Like Boston, the Sixers will likely weigh the offer they make against the possibility that Leonard will be a one-year rental.
That risk-reward equation is one reason the Leonard trade talks are so fascinating. The other, of course, is that if the Spurs ultimately relent and send him to Los Angeles, it could be the first domino falling in the creation of the next superteam. Might LeBron James and Paul George soon follow Leonard to Laker Land?
The same math works for the Sixers. If they trade for Leonard, would it also convince James to sign in Philly?
Such are the stakes of these current trade talks. The landscape of the 2018-19 season is hanging in the balance.
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