NBA free agency begins when the clock strikes midnight on Sunday, July 1. In case you haven’t heard, there are a number of very high-profile free agents available this summer, and some very high-profile teams in the chase to snap them up. There’s also a good bit of uncertainty around some of these fluid situations, especially given the lack of trade action during the NBA Draft and the hulking elephant in the corner that is Kawhi Leonard’s trade request.
All that makes for a fascinating first week of July.
To set that up, we’re offering up the 25 most interesting NBA free agents. Note that these aren’t the best free agents, though quality obviously plays a major role in what’s interesting. Kevin Durant is the best or second best free agent, technically speaking, but his free agency isn’t particularly interesting because it’s almost certain that he will quickly and quietly re-sign with the Warriors. The length and dollars on the deal will be somewhat interesting and could have an impact on other free agent situations, but nothing compared to the domino effects some of these other decisions could have.
Without further delay, here are the 25 most interesting NBA free agents of 2018.
1. LeBron James
It goes without saying that what LeBron James — four-time MVP, three-time Finals MVP, riding an 8-year streak of carrying his team to the NBA Finals, near-consensus Best Player In The World, increasingly considered the Greatest Of All Time — decides to do this summer matters a lot.
The stylistic change is interesting: LeBron won’t be holding meetings with potential suitors or, apparently, keep everyone waiting. (Reports suggest LeBron plans to make an announcement early in free agency.) We’re all hanging on every clue about LeBron’s intentions, from his son’s private school enrollment to the dominoes that could lead James to Los Angeles to, uh, Snoop Dogg’s Instagram comments.
The options on the table appear to be only the Cavaliers, Lakers, Sixers, and Rockets.
2. Paul George
Paul George is a huge domino for what happens with LeBron — apparently King James doesn’t want to be the only star to sign with the Lakers, so it’d help L.A. if they could grab PG first. George, though, has apparently become comfortable with the Thunder and looks to be leaning toward signing to spend the next few years with Russell Westbrook.
Is anyone else besides the Thunder and Lakers in play? If they are, the rumors are light.
3. DeMarcus Cousins
The Pelicans had their best season in a decade, and Cousins has meshed quite well with Anthony Davis both on and off the court. Given that winning games and keeping Davis happy are the only two missions for the Pelicans right now, that would seem to indicate re-upping Cousins no matter the cost is a no-brainer, right?
Except Cousins blew out his Achilles in the middle of the season, and the Pelicans might have actually been better from that point on.
Still, the Pelicans will likely do whatever it takes to bring Cousins back. It only gets interesting if New Orleans’ offer comes in under the max and Boogie surveys the field to see if some desperate team is willing to roll the biggest dice on his recovery.
4. DeAndre Jordan
Jordan’s situation may already have been resolved by the time you read this. Jordan has been rumored to be taking the Chris Paul route by opting in to the final year of his existing contract to orchestrate a trade to a preferred destination. The Mavericks — yes, those Mavericks — are apparently the frontrunner in this race. Yes, those Mavericks that got this DeAndre Jordan to agree to a free agent deal in 2015, only for Jordan to renege after his various Clippers friends held an intervention that looked something like a hostage situation, culminating in Mark Cuban driving around, trying to get some face time with the Texan center.
DeAndre Jordan shockingly gave us the single greatest free agent escapade in modern NBA history three years ago. Odds of repeating that are slim. But we’re going to pay close attention juuuuuuust in case.
5. Clint Capela
Capela is the most important restricted free agent of 2018, not because he’s necessarily the best player of the bunch or set for the most lucrative deal. His importance revolves around his centrality to the Rockets, who are still clearly the NBA’s second best team. If Houston aims to remain a legit competitor to the dynastic Warriors and doesn’t pull off a blockbuster for LeBron or PG, keeping Capela is paramount.
But it’s going to cost a lot, and Capela isn’t Houston’s only free agent. To wit ...
6. Chris Paul
Like several other players in the top 10 of this list, CP3 could have an extremely boring free agency or an extremely explosive free agency. Odds are Houston will quietly sign Paul to a giant contract early in July; CP3 was palling around the NBA Awards Show with Rockets management last week.
But if the Rockets are trying to make another mammoth splash, you could see Paul perhaps being asked to take less and perhaps bristling at the thought and, knowing his best bud LeBron is out there, looking at his options.
Does that sound outlandish? Of course. So did Kyrie Irving and Kawhi Leonard demanding trades. This is the NBA, y’all.
7. Aaron Gordon
Gordon is probably the 2018 restricted free agent with the most potential, potential that hasn’t really been realized on bad Magic teams. If Orlando won’t pay him — which they should, because Steve Clifford figures to be an excellent coach to maximize his defensive potential — some other team ought to. Gordon’s mix of athletic power, motor, and newly gained shooting touch is a rare combination.
8. Jabari Parker
Parker’s torn his ACL twice, and often looks anachronistic in today’s space-and-pace NBA. But he’s an explosive scorer who can create all kinds of shots for himself, and he has the body to be an effective defender (even if he has failed to show progress on that end). While he’s not a Mike Budenholzer type of player, I’d love to see him with a year under Mike Budenholzer. Alas, he appears to be the high-end restricted free agent most likely to leave his club.
9. Isaiah Thomas
Speaking of injuries and defensive issues, don’t forget that Isaiah Thomas is a free agent. He missed the first half of last season with hip issues and was the water to LeBron’s oil in Cleveland before being shipped to Los Angeles. There have long been suggestions that Isaiah could be a difficult teammate; his quick exile from the Cavaliers supports that.
So now we have a guy who was an All-NBA guard for an awesome young team just a year ago limping into free agent.
It’s hard to figure whether Isaiah would prefer a long-term commitment that comes with the risk of being traded around like a baseball card again — he just got dealt three times on a four-year deal — or if he’d rather try to grab a high-dollar short-term deal to rehabilitate his image. We’ll see.
10. Marcus Smart
Smart’s free agency is going to be fascinating. He’s integral to the Celtics’ success without being one of Boston’s best players, if that makes sense. Smart could be a huge boon for other teams — especially young teams in need of an example-setting grinder and who have some shooting in place since, uh, Smart can’t shoot — but is a risk at top dollar. Yet because he’s a restricted free agent, you have to overpay to convince Boston, who has matching rights, to let him go.
What a fascinating mess! There have been rumblings that the Suns could be interested, and I am all in on that fit.
11. Zach LaVine
Consider LaVine a poor man’s Aaron Gordon or a rich man’s Jabari Parker, not because of playing style or quality, but because of his circumstances. He has a major surgery under his belt like Parker — though just one, not two — and is largely known for his athletic ability like Gordon. The difference is that LaVine has put up some serious scoring numbers in both Minnesota and Chicago.
Is that plus some defensive potential worth a massive contract? Probably so for one of these teams with space, most likely of which is the Bulls.
12. Julius Randle
Here’s what makes Randle’s restricted free agency so interesting: it completely depends on whether the Lakers strike out in the early days of July. Too much has been made of the Lakers’ tough decision between keeping Randle and chasing the superstars, because the superstars’ situations — everyone but Kawhi Leonard, who is not a free agent — will all almost assuredly be decided before the Lakers will actually have to make a decision on Randle.
Because he is a restricted free agent, even if Randle agrees to an offer sheet early, the Lakers would have until July 8 to make a decision. If they land big names and can’t afford to keep Randle, they can work out a sign-and-trade or just not match. If the Lakers strike out, they can match an offer sheet. And all that assumes that Randle gets a huge offer off the bat — if he doesn’t, it stands to reason that he’ll patiently wait to negotiate with the Lakers, who can go over the salary cap to sign him due to Bird rights.
Restricted free agency is really powerful for NBA teams.
13. J.J. Redick
Redick was a free agent last year, but took a one-year flyer with the ascendant Sixers for a huge amount of money. It worked out for everyone: Redick is due another big payday, and the Sixers rose.
It looks like the Sixers will swing for the fences with LeBron and perhaps Paul George, and focus on Redick only if they strike out. That would likely suit Redick: if the Sixers do land LeBron, he could take a smaller deal and guarantee himself a great shot at an NBA Finals (and perhaps championship) run.
That said, if the Sixers (who do not have a full-time general manager) are caught sleeping, watch the Brooklyn Nets sign Redick to a multi-year deal.
14. Derrick Favors
The Jazz have two huge free agent decisions to make, and neither feels comfortable in either direction. With Favors, a perfectly fine defense-first starting power forward, Utah has to decide whether to maintain the status quo or find a shooter to slot in next to Rudy Gobert. (Judging whether Gobert, the team’s defensive rock, can stay healthy also figures into this equation.)
Utah needs more scoring punch rather than the extra defense Favors provides. But can the Jazz actual go get that scoring if they let Favors walk? The other question is whether any other teams are willing to spend more than the mid-level exception on Favors, who is only starting to hint at having range.
15. Will Barton
Barton is a hot ticket precisely because the Nuggets are in a salary cap mess, so the lightning rod is seen as attainable. I am pro-Barton, and think he could be a critical piece on a very good team, and as such, I’d love to see him sign for the mid-level with an ascendant team. Imagine Barton on the Sixers! They struggled to find good scoring opportunities in close playoff games, and Barton never struggles to find scoring opportunities (whether they are “good” or otherwise).
The Mavericks and Pacers are other options than might be able to go above the mid-level, which Barton has a real great chance to land.
16. Trevor Ariza
If Capela poses a problem for the Rockets, the Ariza quandary is even worse. While Capela is restricted, allowing Houston to match any offer sheet, Ariza could leave at 12:01 a.m. on July 1 without the Rockets having any recourse. What’s more, he’s close with James Harden and Chris Paul, which could add pressure to Houston to pay up. He’s also quite valuable to the Rockets’ whole scheme, albeit much less important if Houston somehow lands a big fish.
17. Jusuf Nurkic
Portland is rather capped out and suffered immense embarrassment at the hands of the Pelicans, but Nurkic was a big part of the Blazers’ defensive resurgence in 2017-18 and it’s hard to imagine any other team backing up a truck. That said, I have legitimately no idea at what dollar amount Nurkic ends up at given his restricted status. If the DeAndre Jordan efforts fall through, could Dallas make a play? Who knows!
18. Avery Bradley
Next to Redick, there is perhaps no NBA veteran who has never played with LeBron who would be absolutely excellent playing with LeBron more than Bradley. Keep AB in mind if you land the King, Lakers.
19. Thaddeus Young
There’s some mystery around whether Young will stick with the Pacers, either by opting into his contract or re-signing with the team. He’s a really smart fit with Indiana but is probably only No. 4 or 5 on the importance pecking order, so giving the needs for salary flexibility and bench guard help, the Pacers could decide to move on and roll with Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis up front.
UPDATE: Young indeed opted in.
20. Fred VanVleet
VanVleet was a top contender for the Sixth Man of the Year award, is one of the founding figures in the RAPTORS BENCH religious movement, and will be a restricted free agent. Toronto has a bit of a problem here, because VanVleet really can’t sign for less than what Norman Powell did (four years, $42 million) without testing the market, but the market probably won’t bear even that for him. The market is really tight!
So how is this likely to go? Deep into July, VanVleet and the Raptors will reach a short-term deal that lets Toronto retain an important player while allowing the guard to take another bite in a more favorable market. Or ... the Raptors, prepared to move Kyle Lowry, pay up and make VanVleet the point guard of the future. It’s all on the table.
21. Nerlens Noel
Yikes.
22. Rudy Gay
Gay opted out of a small deal with the Spurs to secure, one assumes, a multi-year deal. While Gay had an effective season and has quietly been pretty good since leaving Toronto years ago, he remains anachronistic in the modern NBA as a wing who doesn’t shoot particularly well and needs the ball. It’s hard to imagine a big market developing for him. But it takes just one team.
23. Tony Parker
Will Parker be the first modern Spurs legend to leave San Antonio as a free agent? Tim Duncan retired a Spur, and Manu Ginobili re-upped with San Antonio after almost frittering away a season in Philadelphia. The Spurs have Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray, and Parker seems a little superfluous, and Parker also seems to have played some role in turning Kawhi Leonard sour with his comments on their respective quad injuries.
What’s Tony Parker even worth these days? That’s a tough question, unless he turns into one of those ring-chasing veteran mercenaries.
24. Dwight Howard
Once he’s bought out by the Nets, Howard is going to simultaneously win the “Actually, That’s A Good Pick-up!” and “Sad Trombone Consolation Prize” awards in free agency.
25. Dante Exum
Here’s the second critical Jazz free agent. If Exum stays healthy and continues on his current trajectory, he’s perfect for Utah as a defender and attacking lead guard who can relieve attention on Donovan Mitchell. But there are the injury concerns and skepticism of his shooting and scoring ability. This feels like a great opportunity for Exum to sign the qualifying offer, help lead Utah to a 50-win season, and cash in.
Brook Lopez, Mario “Croatian Nik Stauskas” Hezonja, Actual Nik Stauskas, Nemanja Bjelica, Jamal Crawford, Seth Curry, Patrick McCaw, Ed “Cheap Derrick Favors” Davis.
The author
No comments: