So here's what we know as of now—with "now" being Friday early afternoon—about the Kawhi Leonard situation.
We know, courtesy of ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski and pretty much every other NBA reporter, that Leonard has made it clear he has no interest in playing for the San Antonio Spurs again. We know that Leonard would prefer to play in Los Angeles—he grew up just outside L.A.—and preferably for the Lakers, whom he'd like to be traded to and then sign an extension with next summer, when he can become an unrestricted free agent. We know—thanks to Wojnarowski and his ESPN colleagues Ramona Shelburne and Brian Windhorst—the Lakers want Leonard and that they feel trading for him over the next few days would help them lure LeBron James over the next several weeks.
And we also know the Spurs, reading the tea leaves, have recognized they have slim odds of repairing their relationship with Leonard and that their best move would be to flip Leonard and recoup whatever they can.
The obvious and easy move would be to acquiesce to Leonard's demand and deal him to the Lakers for some sort of package of young players and picks.
Yet, thus far, the Spurs have held back, even as reports have emerged that the atmosphere in Lakers land is growing tense. San Antonio could probably, at this point, pry away Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, multiple future first-round picks and maybe even Julius Randle in a sign-and-trade and be done with the whole affair.
There are two reasons for the Spurs to hesitate. One, obviously, is to squeeze as much as they can out of the desperate Lakers. The other is to hunt for a better offer on the market—or, more specifically, to see if the Boston Celtics are willing to jump into the game.
The C's have the ability to blow every offer out of the water. No team can match their combination of stars—Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving—and future draft picks. (They have their own first-rounder, a Sacramento Kings No. 1-protected 2019 first-rounder, a Memphis Grizzlies pick that could wind up unprotected in 2021 and a lottery-protected Los Angeles Clippers 2019 first-rounder.)
Reports thus far, including from Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe, have indicated the Celtics have been "conservative" in their approach. Tatum rightfully appears to be off the board. Brown, according to multiple reports, is as well.
And here's what Celtics team president Danny Ainge told reporters Friday at a press conference in Boston: "We explore every trade of a player of certain magnitude or superstar/first-ballot Hall of Fame type of players. We're going to take a look and kick the tires and see if there’s something there. But that's all. I think those things are unlikely."
But should they be? Should the Celtics throw everything they have (within reason, of course) onto the table for the chance to nab Leonard, an MVP-caliber player who just turned 27 today?
The risk is obvious, and it makes sense why the team and its fans might be hesitant. But let's talk about the upside first because it's easy, given how last season went, to forget how dominant Leonard is. He's probably the NBA's top perimeter defender. He's also an explosive scorer who, just in 2016-17, carried an average roster to 61 wins and the Western Conference Finals.
A team built around him, Tatum, Hayward and Al Horford would be long, fast, quick, smart and versatile. It'd be nearly impossible to score against and dynamic on offense.
In other words: It'd be a perennial championship contender.
As for that risk: Well, there's the quadriceps injury that kept out Leonard for nearly the entire 2017-18 season. There's also the matter of the reports that he only has interest in signing a long-term deal with the Lakers.
There's also the math. Bringing in Leonard for a package built around Brown and some picks and then convincing the star forward to re-sign would put the Celtics in precarious cap territory. Horford and Hayward are already on max deals. Leonard would be as well, and Irving is due for one next summer (player option). That would give the Celtics four players on max deals—a situation that would be difficult if not impossible to manage. And it would leave them with no room to take care of Tatum in the future.
That means any deal for Leonard would have to involve either Hayward or Irving.
Offering Irving—given his injury history, his ability to sign elsewhere next summer and the emergence of Terry Rozier—would be the ideal move for Boston. Also, the five-time All-Star had the Spurs listed as one of his preferred destinations last summer, when he was pushing for the Cleveland Cavaliers to trade him, according to Chris Haynes of ESPN.
Irving is a stud and as good a player as the Spurs could hope to recoup for Leonard. It'd be a risk for them to trade Kawhi for someone else with an uncertain future, but if they received some assurance from Irving's camp, maybe they could talk themselves into it.
According to ESPN's Zach Lowe, the Spurs have indicated to some teams that they'd like to remain competitive and avoid a full teardown. If so, trading for Irving would make sense. Swapping Leonard for Irving allows the Spurs to theoretically remain in contention. Irving is a star and still just 26. Maybe the ability to offer him that extra year and cash next summer—benefits a player can receive only if he re-signs with his previous team—is worth the dice roll, especially if the Spurs are wary of a reset.
Of course, there's still the issue that Leonard reportedly wants to play for the Lakers. That should and likely does worry the Celtics. The thing is, as we're seeing with Paul George, according to Marc Stein of the New York Times, it's possible to change a player's mind.
The Celtics should have faith in their culture—and that extra fifth year they'd be able to offer him. If it works, then they can build around a core of Leonard, Brown, Tatum and Hayward—a team that would be perfectly tailored to keep up with the Golden State Warriors.
This would be the savvy move. Offer up Irving and one of their non-Kings picks and dare the Spurs to find a better deal.
And if even Leonard bolts, Boston would be ahead of the game. It would have Hayward, Brown, Tatum, all those picks and some cap flexibility. Because the Celtics have spent the past few years amassing a treasure's chest of assets, they have the ability to take a risk. Leonard is worth one.
Yaron Weitzman covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow Yaron on Twitter @YaronWeitzman, listen to his Knicks-themed podcast here and sign up for his newsletter here. Salary info provided by Basketball Insiders.
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