Paul George’s decision to re-sign with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the long-term was a huge win for the team. (Chuck Burton/AP)
NBA free agency has arrived, and with it came a flurry of transactions that shook up the league — and also the rest of this year’s class of free agents.
[NBA free agency: Latest news and rumors]
Here’s a dive through all of the zaniness that happened in the early hours of Sunday morning, and what it means for the days and weeks ahead:
— We have to start with Oklahoma City, where Thunder General Manager Sam Presti not only convinced Paul George to sign a four-year deal for $137 million (with a player option), but the Thunder also brought back Jerami Grant with a three-year, $27 million deal. This signaled two things: first, the Thunder are ecstatic to keep George, who they had no assurances would re-sign with them last summer when they traded for him. They will now be a factor in the West for years to come.
More immediately, though, the deal has Oklahoma City on pace to be the most expensive team in NBA history, with payroll and tax commitments around $310 million at the moment. The Thunder will have to figure out a way to deal with that in the coming weeks. That will likely be either trading or stretching and waiving both Kyle Singler and Carmelo Anthony, which could save them about $23 million in salary for this coming season. That, in turn, could save Oklahoma City well north of $100 million in combined tax and payroll payments.
[Paul George’s decision to re-sign with the Thunder is a monumental win for Oklahoma City]
Either way, though, the important thing here is that George committed to Oklahoma City for the long-term, and that is a pretty cool thing for a franchise that didn’t look like it had a way to recover from losing Kevin Durant two summers ago.
— While the Thunder were undoubtedly the biggest winners from the opening hours of free agency, the Golden State Warriors have to be a close second. Not only did they get Durant back for a third season, but by him taking a one-year deal with a player option for a second, as opposed to a two-year deal with a player option for a third, he saved the Warriors about $5 million this year. That, coincidentally enough, roughly lines up with what the cost of the taxpayer’s mid-level exception will be — which should allow Golden State to add another contributor to their roster.
Just those things alone would be a win for the two-time defending champions. But add in Trevor Ariza stunningly leaving the Houston Rockets for a one-year, $15 million deal with the Phoenix Suns, and George not going to Los Angeles to form a potential super team with LeBron James (should he wind up there), and the Warriors are sitting awfully pretty at the moment.
— Speaking of Houston, the Rockets quickly came to an agreement on a four-year, $160 million contract with Chris Paul to keep the all-star point guard, re-signed Gerald Green for the veteran’s minimum and are expected to meet with restricted free agent center Clint Capela, who the team also plans to keep, Sunday. But what happened with Ariza?
It appears this simply came down to the price to keep him becoming too prohibitive with the rest of Houston’s roster. With Paul in the fold, Houston is at about $114 million for eight players. Add in Capela for, say, $25 million per, and the Rockets are up to $139 million for nine players. If Houston had also matched Ariza’s $15 million, and then filled out its roster with minimum salaries, the Rockets would have wound up around $158 million.
Adding in luxury taxes (which, for that roster, would have been roughly $109 million) and Houston would have been paying almost $270 million for its team next season. That clearly was too much for owner Tilman Fertitta to stomach. Now it would seem likely Luc Mbah a Moute returns, and the Rockets will hope he will avoid the shoulder issues that plagued him in the playoffs and kept him from being a reliable contributor against Golden State. But even if he is healthy and as good as he was last year, losing Ariza is a huge blow to Houston’s chances — and a huge win for Golden State.
[Three years after jilting the Mavericks, DeAndre Jordan agrees to one-year deal with Dallas]
— As mentioned before, George remaining in Oklahoma City is another option off the board for James to team up with in Los Angeles, where it is increasingly likely he’s going to be playing next season. That is another win for Golden State, as it will make it that much tougher for James to build a team capable of competing with the Warriors right out of the gate with the Lakers if he does, in fact, wind up there.
What could change that, of course, is if Kawhi Leonard winds up in Los Angeles. But it feels like if Leonard goes anywhere at this point, it will be the Philadelphia 76ers. Between longtime Spurs assistant Brett Brown running the Sixers, them being in the Eastern Conference and pieces that can form a higher ceiling package (Markelle Fultz, the unprotected 2021 Miami Heat pick, rookie Zhaire Smith, Robert Covington) than what the Lakers can put together, it feels like a natural fit. That, of course, is assuming the Sixers are willing to roll the dice on such a move with Leonard a year away from free agency and after his odd season in San Antonio.
— Someone who will be hoping James goes to the Lakers is DeMarcus Cousins, as that could wind up being a lifeline to a one-year deal in a market where it increasingly looks like he won’t have much of one. DeAndre Jordan going to the Mavericks on a one-year deal eliminated the one possible suitor for his services with cap room, leaving returning to the New Orleans Pelicans on a cut-rate deal or joining the Lakers as his only realistic options.
[Where will DeMarcus Cousins land?]
If neither of those materialize … well, it could be a long summer for Boogie.
— The Denver Nuggets got their two biggest pieces of business done right away, retaining key free agents Nikola Jokic and Will Barton on long-term deals. That was undoubtedly a good thing for the Nuggets, and is a win for them.
But here’s the problem for Denver: Signing both players has pushed the Nuggets up about $197 million in combined payroll and luxury tax payments for next season. Let’s just say there isn’t a single person in the NBA who thinks Denver’s ownership group is willing to stomach paying that much for next season’s team.
Trading away at least two of Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur between now and the start of next season — with Denver’s 2019 first-round pick being, at minimum, the cost of doing business — is the most obvious trade that’s out there. The only question now is whether the two teams positioned to make it — the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks — will be willing.
— To circle back to Phoenix again for a moment, not only was it a stunner to see Ariza leave Houston, but it also was shocking to see him land with the Suns. Clearly Phoenix is committed to improving immediately, and Ariza’s defense and shooting on the perimeter, plus his presence in the locker room should help. So, too, should Mikal Bridges, who Phoenix traded up to get on draft night.
But the Suns still are without a point guard — unless they plan to have Devin Booker run point (which is an option) or are expecting French rookie Elie Okobo, the 31st pick in the draft, to be a big impact player right away (he has the potential to be an impact player, but expecting that immediately is probably a stretch).
Perhaps the happiest person about Ariza going to Phoenix is Hawks General Manager Travis Schlenk, who now can offer the Suns Dennis Schroder in a trade. Schroder for Brandon Knight makes a lot of sense for both teams, and wouldn’t shock me if something along those lines happened. Another name to consider: Jeremy Lin, one of three point guards the Brooklyn Nets have these days, along with Spencer Dinwiddie and D’Angelo Russell.
— The saddest folks about the Ariza news were probably Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart, the two top restricted free agent point guards on the market who no longer have an obvious suitor in free agency. It will be awfully interesting to see where both players go from here, as this could lead to long, contentious negotiations with their current teams to determine their market value. Outside offers just don’t appear likely anymore, as virtually everyone in the league had Phoenix spending their cap space on a point guard, rather than a wing like Ariza.
That will make their current teams, Toronto and Boston, quite happy, as they both have financial constraints to work within. The Raptors are already into the tax, while the Celtics would like to avoid it. Boston brought back Aron Baynes right away, as anticipated, but doing so now has the Celtics walking quite a tightrope to avoid the tax and bring Smart back.
— Speaking of cap space, it’s quickly disappearing. The Mavericks are out of space after signing Jordan (which, by the way, getting Jordan on a one-year deal was both great for Dallas, and a sign of the lack of leverage he had in the marketplace); the Suns are out of space after signing Ariza; and Indiana significantly cut into its $20 million in space by giving Doug McDermott a three-year, $22 million deal right out of the gate.
Add in Chicago and Atlanta likely to be content to seek out dead money from teams, and Philadelphia being likely to spend big to keep J.J. Redick for a second straight year after striking out on their top targets, and here are the teams with usable cap space in the NBA after about three hours of free agency: the Lakers (largely earmarked for a possible James deal), the Sacramento Kings (around $18 million) and the Pacers (around $14 million).
Good luck to the rest of the free agents on the market. Finding offers will be far easier said than done.
— One such person who could struggle to find a suitable offer to his liking is Jabari Parker. The Bucks seemed to signal their intentions by using the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception on Ersan Ilyasova. And while bringing Ilyasova back to Milwaukee did come as a bit of a surprise (though he did play for new Coach Mike Budenholzer in Atlanta last season), signaling the franchise will likely be moving on from Parker is not.
Parker is not exactly a fit for how Budenholzer likes to play, and a big contract for him — with the threat of injury that comes with it — simply doesn’t make sense for a Bucks team that needs to hit a home run next summer. Signing Ilyasova doesn’t guarantee Parker won’t be back, but it is yet another indication he’s far from a priority in Milwaukee. At this point, the better question is if he will be a priority anywhere.
— Finally, a quick note on the Spurs, who chose to re-sign Rudy Gay, and then use their taxpayer’s mid-level exception on Marco Belinelli to bring the Italian back to San Antonio on a two-year, $12 million deal. That certainly doesn’t make it look like the Spurs are going to commit to a full rebuild if they move on from Leonard. In fact, it might signal they have decided just to grit their teeth, bring Leonard back for next season and see if they can tempt him with the supermax (assuming he is healthy and qualifies for it).
This is a story that isn’t going away anytime soon.
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