It's time to stop talking about what Michigan is going to be under fourth-year coach Jim Harbaugh.
That is, if you can get past Harbaugh himself. That's the easy trap.
"He's bad in rivalry games right now." That's true.
"He's on the hot seat and in danger of losing his job." That's false.
When those dueling hot takes collide, however, they form a cold, hard truth about the state of the program. Harbaugh will be under immense pressure that could border on toxic if the No. 14 Wolverines don't use Big Ten play to win a few rivalry games and make up for a 24-17 loss to No. 12 Notre Dame in South Bend, Ind., on Saturday.
SN LIVE BLOG: Updates, highlights from Michigan-ND showdown
The second take will come to fruition if Michigan doesn't change course from where it's going to something more substantial before a pivotal conference run. Keep in mind that Ohio State is the only team to lose a nonconference game and win a national championship in the College Football Playoff era, which the Buckeyes pulled off in 2014.
Michigan did not play anywhere near that level under Harbaugh, but to be fair, it hasn't played at that level on the road since 2006 when it beat Notre Dame 47-21 in South Bend. That's the last time Michigan defeated a ranked opponent on the road, and it's also the last time it wasn't going to be good. The Wolverines had an experienced quarterback and an outstanding defense that year, and that still wasn't enough to beat Ohio State in the No. 1-vs.-No. 2 showdown in the regular-season finale.
Ever since the follow-up loss to Appalachian State in 2007, the program has spent a decade and change in a constant state of going to be something. Going to be better. Going to be different. Going to be like it used to be. The program has been going nowhere in that time.
Saturday's loss felt too much like Harbaugh's debut in the 2015 season opener at Utah. Michigan lost 24-17 that night, too.
Sure, the Wolverines have more talent now. They have legit NFL Draft picks on defense with Rashan Gary, Chase Winovich and Devin Bush playing in Don Brown's scheme. If the unit is going to be truly elite, however, then it can't make the mental mistakes that plagued it against the Irish. Each of Notre Dame's three touchdown drives was helped by a critical penalty — pass interference, targeting and roughing the passer. The Wolverines couldn't get off the field on third down when it mattered.
Michigan has an experienced quarterback in Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson, and the passing game has been upgraded, but if Patterson is going to be an elite Big Ten quarterback, then he needs to avoid mistakes that take points off the board. He took two costly sacks with his team in scoring position, threw a third-quarter interception and lost a fumble in the final minutes on the potential game-tying drive.
He battled cramps in the fourth quarter and was replaced by Dylan McCaffrey. Michigan didn't score an offensive touchdown until it cut the lead to 24-17 on Karan Higdon's 3-yard run with 2:17 remaining — too little, too late.
The reason for the lack of offense is simple, and it comes down to the same old cliche. It doesn't matter if it's Rich Rodriguez, Brady Hoke or Harbaugh coaching — Michigan isn't going anywhere until it can run the football in a big-time game. The offensive line did not show significant improvement from 2017 on Saturday. The Wolverines rushed 33 times for 58 yards and were one-dimensional in a hit-or-miss passing game. A team cannot play championship-level football if it cannot run the ball. That, more than anything, is why Harbaugh is now 1-6 against Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State.
Michigan didn't help itself by leaving at least 10 points on the board with a sack at the Notre Dame 2 and a botched field-goal decision. In addition, Harbaugh rashly went for it on fourth-and-5 from the Irish 45 early in the third quarter. The offense failed to convert.
When it comes to the rivalry games, Michigan is always on tilt.
What does that mean for Harbaugh? Circle back to those takes. His style is what Michigan wants, and given that his former teammate Warde Manuel is the athletic director, there are no indications that there is even a discussion about a hot seat at this point. The constant NFL rumors will always be tempting, but none of them have been substantial.
Harbaugh wins games Michigan is supposed to win, which makes him better than Rodriguez, who lost to Toledo and Illinois, and Hoke, who lost to Rutgers and Maryland, but he is still just 28-12 overall, a .700 winning percentage. That's not good enough in Ann Arbor, or at any major powerhouse.
Here is what needs to happen next for the program: It needs to register substantial road victories over ranked opponents. The Wolverines will have opportunities when they go to Michigan State on Oct. 20 and Ohio State on Nov. 24. The trip to Northwestern on Sept. 29 isn't a shoo-in considering the recent track record away from home.
Until then, that albatross will hang over the program, and that leads to the only frozen take that matters: "It won't matter how long Harbaugh stays, because the next coach will face the same challenge."
Michigan won't go anywhere until it changes.
The author
No comments: